Trump and Harris: Different Impacts on Interest Rate Volatility
Publication Time:2024-07-31 04:41:05
According to the latest research report from Barclays, different presidential election outcomes have a significant impact on interest rate volatility. The study found that interest rate volatility tends to rise in the three months following the election of a challenger. However, when the White House remains under the control of the incumbent president's party, interest rate volatility shows a downward trend. This phenomenon is referred to as the 'Trump Trade' and 'Harris Trade,' corresponding respectively to Republican candidate Trump and Democratic candidate Harris. To date, Wall Street has focused on market movement predictions following Trump's re-election, especially the anticipated increase in longer-term bond yields in response to expected more lenient fiscal policies. Barclays' report further cites historical data, predicting that 'implied volatility for belly bonds along the yield curve' will fluctuate due to changes in the election results.
Wall Street
US election
Trump Trade
harris trade
Interest Rate Volatility