In recent financial markets, the discussion about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy this week has been heating up. According to data analysis from the 'FedWatch' tool of the CME Group, market participants' expectations for the Fed's actions this week show a clear polarization. Specifically, as much as 95.9% of forecasts predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate level unchanged this week, reflecting the market's preference for a stable economic environment. Meanwhile, expectations for a rate cut are relatively limited, with only a 4.1% possibility being considered, indicating that the strategy of stimulating economic growth through a 25 basis point rate cut is not widely supported. Looking ahead at future monetary policy trends, the market also has a clear expectation of the Federal Reserve's action direction in September. Among them, 86.8% of forecasts believe that the Federal Reserve will choose not to make any adjustments and continue to maintain stable interest rates. This prediction reflects the market's cautious attitude towards the current economic situation and considerations of policy uncertainty. At the same time, although the expectation for a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points reaches 12.8%, compared with the high probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged, it shows that the market still expects moderate rate cuts to promote economic activities. It is worth noting that the likelihood of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points or more has dropped to 12.8% and 0.4% respectively, indicating that the market holds a conservative attitude toward larger-scale rate cuts, worrying about potential risks brought by overly loose monetary policies. In summary, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged this week has significantly increased, and while there is still some possibility of future rate cuts, market expectations are more cautious. This trend reflects the complex challenges faced by policymakers in pursuing economic growth and maintaining market stability under the current global economic environment.