Analysis of September Interest Rate Cut Probability by the Fed: Highest Chance at 25 Basis Points
Publication Time:2024-08-02 20:26:07
According to the latest data from market analysis platform CME's 'FedWatch', there is a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a rate-cutting measure in its upcoming September meeting. Specifically, the data indicates that the highest probability of 25 basis points cut is 69.5%, compared to a 30.5% chance of a 50 basis points cut, which reflects a conservative expectation from the market regarding the Fed's policy moves. Moreover, considering future monetary policy adjustments, the probability of cumulative 25 basis points cut remains at 0% by November, while the probability of cumulative 50 basis points cut rises to 65.0%. This suggests that the market anticipates further accommodative policies from the Fed. Additionally, the probabilities for cumulative 75 and 100 basis points cuts stand at 33.0% and 2.0% respectively, indicating that most market participants believe the Fed is more likely to make gradual interest rate adjustments in the short term rather than substantial changes.
Fed
CME
Interest Rate Cut
September
probability analysis