Taylor Rule Reveals Fed's Lag in Interest Rate Cuts
Publication Time:2024-08-03 03:51:09
Institutional analysis highlights that the classic Taylor Rule model illuminates the noticeable lag in the Federal Reserve's adjustment of benchmark interest rates. Based on this model, the current Federal Reserve benchmark rate is approximately 1.7 percentage points above what would be deemed reasonable. In other words, theoretically, seven 25 basis point cuts would be necessary to achieve an appropriate rate adjustment. Recent economic figures indicate that the non-farm employment rate rose to 4.3% in July, and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased by 2.6% in June. Concurrently, Federal Reserve officials have hypothesized a neutral real interest rate of 0.8%, with an estimated long-term unemployment rate of 4.2%. Taking these elements into account, the Taylor Rule model calculates an ideal interest rate level of 3.65%, yet the actual scenario reveals that the effective federal funds rate has reached 5.3%. This outcome unequivocally demonstrates that the Federal Reserve's execution of a lowering strategy is notably delayed, not synchronizing with the pace of economic shifts.
Federal Reserve
Interest Rate Cuts
Taylor Rule
Non-farm Employment
Core PCE Price Index