Barclays Analysis: Fed May Not Cut Rates by 50 Basis Points in September
Publication Time:2024-08-04 16:11:08
Barclays recently analyzed that despite market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year in September, November, and December, the expected rate cuts are likely to be of 25 basis points each. Based on considerations of the continued resilience of the employment market as shown in the August jobs report and the stable trend of the unemployment rate, the bank believes that the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September is not high. However, if the unemployment rate rises further in the future, it could spark concerns about the employment market cooling faster than expected. For predictions in 2025, Barclays expects the unemployment rate to gradually decline to 4.2%, while maintaining its inflation forecasts. The bank anticipates the Federal Reserve to implement three interest rate cuts in March, June, and September next year, with speculation that worries over a lack of further progress in inflation for the second half of the year may prompt the Fed to pause its rate cutting actions when the federal funds rate reaches the range of 3.75%-4.00%. In terms of long-term prospects, Barclays continues to view the neutral interest rate level as between 3.00%-3.25%.
Federal Reserve
unemployment rate
Interest Rate Cut
Barclays
Employment Market