The CITIC Securities research report points out that in July 2024, the number of new non-farm jobs added in the United States was lower than expected, and various data indicate that the US labor market continues to cool down. Despite the rise in unemployment rates and slowing wage growth, the unemployment rate remains at a historically low level of 9%. Considering the impact of increased labor supply and weather factors, the data is not enough to trigger excessive interpretation. Although the July non-farm employment data deviated from the Federal Reserve's 'sweet spot', it still remains within the 'comfort zone'. The report emphasizes that the 'recession trade' does not mean an economic recession but represents expectations of potential policy adjustments. Based on this analysis, CITIC Securities forecasts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25bps for the first time at the September FOMC meeting, and estimates a total annual cut range of 50-75bps. Regarding the 10-year US Treasury bond yield for the year, CITIC Securities expects it to operate within a range of 3.5%-4.2%.