Market Forecast: Strong Tendency for Fed Rate Cut in September, 70% Chance of a 50 Basis Point Cut
Publication Time:2024-08-07 07:01:07
Financial markets are currently focused on the potential actions of the Federal Reserve. According to the latest data from the CME’s ‘FedWatch’ tool, the market generally expects the Fed to take rate-cutting measures in September, in response to global economic uncertainty and domestic economic pressure. The data shows that there is only a 28.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed in September, whereas a 50 basis point cut has a probability of 71.5%, indicating a strong market inclination towards a larger rate cut. Furthermore, considering future rate-cut expectations, it is estimated that the Fed will cumulatively cut rates by 50 basis points by November with a probability of 19.3%, and a cumulative cut of 75 basis points has a probability of 57.6%. A cumulative cut of 100 basis points also stands at 23.2%. These series of data reflect the general market expectations for the Fed's future rate-cut trajectory, particularly leaning towards more proactive rate-cut policies to stimulate economic growth and stabilize financial markets.
rate cut
Federal Reserve
basis point
September