John Williams, the former chairman of the New York Federal Reserve, recently expressed his views, stating that he has shifted from an hawkish position to a dovish one, no longer supporting further hikes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve but advocating for immediate cuts to prevent a recession. Williams mentioned that signs from the US labor market have shown a weakening trend over the past two weeks, alongside a softening in inflation data. He believes that if the Fed continues to wait for a rate cut, the potential risks could gradually increase. According to estimates of the neutral interest rate by Fed members, the current effective federal funds rate is at 5.3%, which is significantly higher than the neutral level. Williams pointed out that once a recession occurs, the Fed will need to lower interest rates to as low as 3% or even lower. It is expected that during the upcoming meeting in September, the Fed might take action, cutting interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points.