In its latest report, JPMorgan has increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession by the end of the year from 25% to 35%, based on an analysis of recent economic data. The report's authors, JPMorgan economists Bruce Kasman and his team, emphasize that the challenges facing the economy are more severe than previously anticipated, with a faster decline in labor market demand and signs of layoffs starting to emerge. Despite this, they maintain their long-term forecast for the probability of a recession over the next few years, which is still estimated at 45% for the second half of 2025. JPMorgan believes that the adjustment in its interest rate outlook is more significant than its assessment of recession risk. As a result, the financial institution now predicts a lower probability of central banks, including the Fed, maintaining high interest rates at only 30%, compared to 50% two months ago. In light of persistently falling inflation pressures, JPMorgan expects the Fed to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points each in September and November.