Monex Europe has released a report predicting that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points at each of its meetings in September, November, and December. This forecast is slightly below the prevailing market expectations. The firm believes that if the US retail sales data prompts the market to lower its expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts, the US dollar might see an increase. Monex's analysis indicates that consumer activity is expected to rise moderately in July, which would reinforce the message that the US economy is still growing. If this prediction proves accurate, it is anticipated that the market will align more closely with Monex's perspective on the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, thereby generating a positive impact on the US dollar.