Translation of the Title: Former Fed Chair Evans: Employment Data Volatility May Trigger Aggressive Rate Cuts
Publication Time:2024-08-19 22:21:09
Translation of the Body: Former Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans notes that while the current state of the labor market appears to be functioning normally, including slower wage growth, healthy levels of job vacancies, and unemployment rates that generally align with policymakers' expectations for compatibility with a 2% inflation target, this does not necessarily mean that the economy is on stable footing. Evans stresses that historical data often indicates that such optimistic assessments can be overly optimistic. He believes that once there is even a single employment report that shows signs of weakness, such as a decline in labor participation or job growth falling short of expectations, it could trigger worries about the risk of a recession. This, in turn, could prompt policymakers to consider taking aggressive steps to lower interest rates in order to prevent an increase in unemployment and avert a downturn. He further points out that the longer policymakers delay taking action, the more limited the future flexibility in adjusting interest rates will be, which increases the difficulty in responding to economic challenges. Therefore, Evans reminds market participants to pay close attention to subtle changes in employment data, as these could serve as key signals for initiating proactive rate cut actions.
unemployment rate
Employment Report
Former Chicago Fed Chair
Aggressive rate cuts
2% inflation target