According to the latest CME “FedWatch” data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September has reached 77%, reflecting the strong market expectation for the Fed to adopt a loose monetary policy in response to economic uncertainties. At the same time, the probability of a cut of 50 basis points is 23%, indicating a relatively cautious attitude towards the possibility of a larger scale rate cut. In addition, the data shows that by November, the probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points is 60.1%, while the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is 34.8%. The probability of a cumulative cut of 100 basis points is only 5.0%, suggesting that the market believes that the possibility of large-scale rate cuts in the short term is relatively small.