U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data Revised: Potential Downward Adjustment to 1 Million Jobs
Publication Time:2024-08-21 02:17:08
Recently, the U.S. government released a series of benchmark revision data, one of which is an assessment of non-farm employment numbers over the past year. These data suggest that in the year ending in March, the increase in non-farm employment in the United States will be significantly lower than the current statistical value, at least reducing by 600,000 jobs, equivalent to an average monthly reduction of about 50,000 jobs. It's worth noting that the expected downward adjustment varies among different analysis institutions. JPMorgan Chase's forecasters predict a downward adjustment of around 360,000 jobs, while experts from Goldman Sachs Group have given a high estimate of up to 1 million jobs. If the final revision confirms a downward adjustment exceeding 501,000 jobs, it will be the largest revision since 2007, indicating a faster and more significant cooling of the labor market than market expectations. These revised data will also influence the tone of Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, especially against the backdrop of continued cooling of inflation rates and the job market. Investors are closely watching whether the Federal Reserve will adjust its monetary policy stance and what degree of interest rate cuts it might adopt to address the current economic environment.
Economic Forecast
Non-farm Employment
Federal Reserve policy
U.S. Employment Data
Labor Market Cooling