Analysis of the Probability of Federal Reserve Cutting Rates in September: 67% Chance or 25 Basis Points
Publication Time:2024-08-30 06:22:11
According to data from CME's 'FedWatch', there is a certain expectation in the current market regarding the policy adjustment direction of the Federal Reserve in September. The data shows that the possibility of the Federal Reserve choosing to cut rates by 25 basis points is the highest, with a probability reaching 67%. This means that in future monetary policy formulation, the Federal Reserve tends to adopt more accommodating measures to address potential economic downside risks. Meanwhile, there is also an expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut, but this possibility stands at only 33%, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards the Federal Reserve taking more significant rate-cut actions. Further analysis shows that, from a longer time frame perspective, the market expects the Federal Reserve to conduct a certain degree of rate-cut operations in the coming months. Specifically, the probability of cumulative rate cuts amounting to 50 basis points is 44%, indicating that the market believes the Federal Reserve will take a medium-sized rate-cut action in the coming months. At the same time, the probability of cumulative rate cuts totaling 75 basis points is 45%, reflecting the market's concern about the possibility of the Federal Reserve adopting larger-scale rate-cut measures. However, the probability of cumulative rate cuts reaching 100 basis points is only 11%, indicating that the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take such a large-scale rate cut in the short term. Overall, these data reflect the market's expectations for the future monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve, as well as its concerns about the global economic situation and sensitivity to monetary policy adjustments.
rate cut
Federal Reserve
Basis Points
Financial Market
Probability