In financial markets, discussions about the potential size of the Federal Reserve's initial interest rate cut have been heating up. According to金色财经, Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the 'Fed Whisperer,' noted that the jobs report, as one of the key indicators influencing monetary policy, could significantly alter market predictions for the extent of the cut. The market generally assumes that if the jobs data suggests a heightened risk of recession, the Fed will opt for a more aggressive approach, such as a cut of 50 basis points. However, recent jobs reports have not provided enough clarity, keeping the market in a state of “split decisions” regarding pricing for a 25 or 50 basis point cut. Timiraos stated that although the jobs data did not reach the level to warrant a shift in the benchmark expectation towards a 50 basis point cut, considering the revision of the data, it is still difficult for the market to entirely dismiss the possibility of a larger scale cut. Therefore, speculation about the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut remains uncertain, with the market closely monitoring subsequent data and policy developments.