Fed August Interest Rate Policy Forecast: High Probability of Maintaining Interest Rates Unchanged
Publication Time:2024-07-25 06:11:07
In recent financial market analyses, investors have been closely monitoring the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision. According to the 'Fed Watch' tool provided by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the market outlook for August is clear-cut. Specifically, there is a 93.3% probability that the Fed will opt to maintain its benchmark interest rate level, suggesting that the likelihood of stable US monetary policy in the short term is significant. Although there is an expectation for a rate cut, the possibility of a 25 basis point reduction is only 6.7%, indicating that the overall market holds a more optimistic view of the current interest rate levels. For the interest rate decision one month later in September, the market expects a higher concentration of views, with an 89.6% probability of the Fed maintaining rates and a 10.2% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points. Notably, for more substantial rate cuts, i.e., a cumulative cut of 50 or 75 basis points, market expectations stand at 10.2% and 0.3% respectively, reflecting a weak consensus among the market on aggressive rate cuts in the near term. This series of data reflects the market's comprehensive judgment of the current global economic situation and the performance of the US economy, providing important reference for investors.
Federal Reserve
Interest rate policy
Economic Forecast