The Fed's Dot Plot Could Hinder Bond Market Rally
Publication Time:2024-09-13 19:52:07
In his report, Elmar Voelker, a senior fixed income analyst at Baden-Württembergische Bank AG, suggests that the new round of interest rate expectations - referred to as the dot plot - which is likely to be unveiled at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, might not push for more interest rate cuts as the current market anticipates. Voelker observes that the market has been speculating about a substantial cut of 50 basis points, but the latest forecasts from the institution merely indicate a reduction of 25 basis points this year. Therefore, he questions whether these updated forecasts can be in line with the market's positive expectations, at least. Notably, concerns have also been expressed about the forecast for 2025. Voelker predicts that these changes could potentially exert pressure on bond prices and consequently serve as an impediment to price increases.
Federal Reserve
Interest Rate Cuts
Bond Market
Dot Plot
Interest Rate Expectations