UniCredit Analysis: Fed's 25-Basis-Point Cut Likely to Benefit USD; 50-Basis-Point Cut Signals Economic Concerns
Publication Time:2024-09-13 23:01:09
UniCredit's foreign exchange strategist Robert Mialich points out that although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates at its next meeting, he anticipates a cut of only 25 basis points, rather than the 50 basis points widely expected by the market. Mialich believes that such a rate cut decision reflects the Fed's view on the current economic situation, indicating that it is not inclined towards significant easing policy adjustments. This assessment is likely to have a positive impact on the USD exchange rate, as the market interprets it as the Fed taking a cautious stance on the current economic situation, which helps stabilize market sentiment and prevents further depreciation of the USD. However, he also notes that a 25-basis-point cut is not enough to trigger a significant rebound in the USD exchange rate. Mialich also mentions that the EUR/USD exchange rate may remain above 1.10 in the short term, but if the Fed were to opt for a 50-basis-point cut, it could trigger a breakout of the key level of 1.12 for EUR/USD, signaling that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are weaker than current data suggests.
Monetary Policy
foreign exchange market
Fed Decision
USD Exchange Rate